# ETH Breakout Playbook

## Overview

This artifact package is designed for teams that want a reusable ETH breakout decision object rather than a one-off market comment.

The package should be read as:

1. thesis and context
2. decision framework
3. operating modes
4. parameters and examples
5. optional reference code

## Strategy Thesis

ETH breakout quality improves when the 2,385-2,400 shelf becomes support on closing strength, not when price only wicks above it intraday and immediately fades.

## Decision Framework

- Prefer continuation only when the 4h close reclaims the confirmation shelf and follow-through is not immediately faded.
- Treat liquidity sweeps back through the shelf as a caution flag rather than a clean continuation trigger.
- Let BTC regime context act as a supporting filter before upgrading ETH-specific breakout conviction.

## Operating Modes

### confirmed_breakout

Use this mode when ETH is accepted above the confirmation zone and the reclaim has not already failed.

Primary objective:

- participate in continuation

Primary invalidation:

- lose the shelf on closing basis

### decision_zone

Use this mode when ETH is still negotiating the confirmation shelf.

Primary objective:

- stay patient and avoid premature directional commitment

Primary invalidation:

- continued indecision without clean acceptance

### failed_breakout_risk

Use this mode when ETH loses the zone, shows sweep behavior, or fails to hold the reclaim.

Primary objective:

- reduce risk and prepare for rejection scenarios

Primary invalidation:

- fresh reclaim with real closing strength

## Parameter Suggestions

- primary timeframe: 4h
- confirmation zone: 2385 to 2400
- upside projection zone: 2550 to 2650
- supporting filter: BTC regime should not be risk_off

## Implementation Guidance

This package is intended to support:

- internal research stacks
- semi-automated review workflows
- agent orchestration layers

It is not intended to be treated as:

- a brokerage integration
- a custody system
- guaranteed execution logic

## Risk Disclaimer

This artifact is research and workflow support material only. Breakout conditions can fail quickly, especially after thin liquidity pushes or false acceptance near key thresholds.